BearPaws

Market Bias

Risk-On vs Risk-Off · Futures Performance · Real-time Sentiment Overlay

Overall Market Bias

risk on
Score+13
Risk-OffNeutralRisk-On

The market is currently exhibiting a Risk-On bias. Capital is favouring AUD, GBP while XAG, XAU lag over the blended 1M/3M horizon.

Futures Performance Matrix

1M (wt 1.0) · 3M (wt 1.5)

Risk-On Basket

Currency1M Perf3M Perf
EUR-0.72%-1.90%
GBP-0.51%-0.23%
AUD-0.33%+0.62%
NZD-0.16%-2.01%
CAD-0.93%-1.32%
Average-0.53%-0.97%

Risk-Off Basket

Currency1M Perf3M Perf
CHF+0.25%-2.64%
JPY+0.54%-2.26%
XAU-2.00%-14.22%
Average-0.00%-9.92%

Rapid Shifts (News Sentiment)

Leading indicators

Rep. Warnock: Wall Street vs Main Street

bloomberg-markets1h ago
neutral

South Africa’s Kganyago Warns Inflation Expectations Are Rising

bloomberg-markets2h ago
neutral

The loneliness crisis has gotten so bad that lawmakers are ready to spend millions of dollars to fight it

marketwatch3h ago
neutral

USD/JPY set for highest weekly close since 1986

forexlive21h ago
neutral

Trump picked Kevin Warsh to cut rates. The new Fed chief just told us he has other plans.

marketwatch1d ago
risk off

Questions are creeping in about AI usefulness and spend

forexlive1d ago
risk off

Mixed day for European stock markets as they wrap up a strong week

forexlive1d ago
risk off

Iran Sanctions Losing Efficacy

bloomberg-markets50m ago
neutral

News sentiment acts as a leading indicator, capturing rapid shifts in risk appetite that are not yet reflected in the 1M or 3M futures performance.