BearPaws

Fundamental Valuation

One score per currency · macro synthesis · second-order CB policy effects

Policy Spectrum

anticipated CB lean
← cut · dovishholdhike · hawkish →
CADNZDCHFEURUSDGBPAUDJPY
deflationarybalancedinflationary
DivergenceJPYHIKECADCUT4.55expressed byCAD/JPYBearish

Each currency is plotted by intrinsic score on a relative axis; the extremes are scaled to the basket's widest reading, not absolute. Policy lean is the anticipated second-order central-bank reaction (hike/hold/cut), not a rate forecast.

By Currency

score → pressure → policy
CcydeflationaryinflationaryScore
1JPY+3.65
inflationaryHIKE

Positive intrinsic score (3.65) signals inflationary pressure; biases Japanese Yen policy toward tightening.

Score basis
macro+8.29
momentum-0.98
2AUD+1.73
inflationaryHIKE

Positive intrinsic score (1.73) signals inflationary pressure; biases Australian Dollar policy toward tightening.

Score basis
macro+3.37
momentum+0.09
3GBP+1.49
inflationaryHIKE

Positive intrinsic score (1.49) signals inflationary pressure; biases British Pound policy toward tightening.

Score basis
macro+3.00
momentum-0.03
4USD+0.29
balancedHOLD

Near-zero intrinsic score (0.29): pressures balanced, no clear policy lean.

Score basis
macro-1.14
momentum+1.72
5EUR+0.18
balancedHOLD

Near-zero intrinsic score (0.18): pressures balanced, no clear policy lean.

Momentum-only: no macro coverage for EUR yet (FRED is US-only; see footnote).

6CHF+0.14
balancedHOLD

Near-zero intrinsic score (0.14): pressures balanced, no clear policy lean.

Score basis
macro+0.37
momentum-0.09
7NZD-0.02
balancedHOLD

Near-zero intrinsic score (-0.02): pressures balanced, no clear policy lean.

Momentum-only: no macro coverage for NZD yet (FRED is US-only; see footnote).

8CAD-0.89
deflationaryCUT

Negative intrinsic score (-0.89) signals deflationary pressure; biases Canadian Dollar policy toward easing.

Score basis
macro-1.54
momentum-0.25
9XAU-3.59
deflationaryCUT

Negative intrinsic score (-3.59) signals deflationary pressure; biases Gold policy toward easing.

Momentum-only: no macro coverage for XAU yet (FRED is US-only; see footnote).

10XAG-4.28
deflationaryCUT

Negative intrinsic score (-4.28) signals deflationary pressure; biases Silver policy toward easing.

Momentum-only: no macro coverage for XAG yet (FRED is US-only; see footnote).

One score per currency synthesising macro factors. Negative → deflationary, positive → inflationary, near-zero → balanced. Policy lean is the anticipated second-order central-bank reaction (hike/hold/cut) derived from the score, not a rate forecast. Macro basis is USD-only today (FRED is US-only); other majors are momentum-only until a paid macro feed is wired.

Macro Indicator Breakdown

NFP · CCI · RS · BP

AUD

IndicatorValuePriorChg
CCI-17.0-20.0+3.0
PMI9.39.3+0.0
BP94.787.0+7.6
NFP4.54.3+0.2

CAD

IndicatorValuePriorChg
PMI-3.6-17.8+14.2
RS128.8129.7-0.9
BP179.4185.5-6.1
NFP6.66.9-0.3

CHF

IndicatorValuePriorChg
CCI-41.0-32.4-8.7
PMI-10.4-10.5+0.1
RS110.4110.3+0.1
NFP5.15.1+0.0

EUR

IndicatorValuePriorChg
CCI-13.1-12.8-0.3
NFP6.36.4-0.1
RS103.7103.5+0.2
BP94.489.7+4.7
PMI-9.0-9.3+0.3
SERV_PMI5.65.8-0.2

GBP

IndicatorValuePriorChg
CCI-16.8-19.0+2.3
PMI-14.1-14.2+0.0
RS102.0103.4-1.4
NFP4.95.2-0.3

JPY

IndicatorValuePriorChg
CCI33.632.2+1.4
PMI12.011.0+1.0
RS101.2100.7+0.5
NFP2.52.7-0.2

USD

IndicatorValuePriorChg
NFP159001.0158829.0+172.0
CCI49.853.3-3.5
RS662752.0655933.0+6819.0
BP1413.01423.0-10.0
Awaiting macro feedNZD