BearPaws

USD

US Dollar
Neutral
Score
+0.29
1D %
-0.02%
1W %
+0.15%
1M %
+1.83%

Score blends a macro-fundamental component (rates, inflation, growth, employment) with price momentum over a weeks-to-months horizon. Positive = strengthening / inflationary pressure, negative = weakening.

Score History · USD

90 pts · intrinsic
+0.29Δ window-0.84

Macro Indicators

USD
Nonfarm Payrolls (level)
159001.0Δ+172.0May 2026
Consumer Sentiment (University of Michigan)
49.8Δ-3.5Apr 2026
Retail Sales (advance, ex food services)
662752.0Δ+6819.0May 2026
Building Permits (privately-owned housing units)
1413.0Δ-10.0May 2026

PMI / Services PMI gaps documented in backend §8.2: ISM is proprietary, FRED's `NAPMPI` series discontinued.

COT Positioning

non-commercial · weekly
Long
27908
Short
26524
Net
+1384
ReportNetΔ longΔ short
2026-06-09+1384+3324+5698
2026-06-02+3758+1852-1056
2026-05-26+850+1329+0
2026-05-19-479+2491+6157
2026-05-12+3187+1864-630
2026-05-05+693-132+3683
2026-04-28+4508-437+38
2026-04-21+4983-1353-1166

Net = long − short. Heavy positive net = crowded long (contrarian risk when paired with negative fundamental score).

View USD outlookFundamental strength, COT lean & news read

USD · frequently asked questions

What does the US Dollar (USD) intrinsic score mean?
The US Dollar intrinsic score is a single fundamental-strength reading for USD, blending macro indicators with price momentum. A positive score points to inflationary or strengthening pressure, a negative score to deflationary or weakening pressure, and a near-zero score to a balanced stance.
Is USD bullish or bearish right now?
US Dollar (USD) currently reads neutral: its fundamental strength and momentum are roughly balanced. Its latest reading is 0.29. This is market context (a weeks-to-months bias, not an entry signal), so wait for price action to confirm before acting.
What macro indicators feed the USD score?
The USD score draws on macro inputs including PMI, Services PMI, the Consumer Confidence Index, Retail Sales, Building Permits, and the employment report. These readings are synthesised into a directional consensus and combined with price momentum to produce the intrinsic score.
How is USD COT positioning used?
Commitment of Traders (COT) data shows how non-commercial (speculative and institutional) traders are positioned in USD. BearPaws uses it for trend confirmation or contrarian reads alongside the intrinsic and cross-pair scores, not as a standalone signal.