Built by traders who got tired of guessing.
BearPaws started from a simple frustration: the retail forex world runs on hype. Signal groups, hot takes, and indicators that disagree with each other — but almost nothing that explains why a currency is moving, or whether the move has fundamental legs.
We built the tool we wanted: one place that scores every major currency on its actual fundamentals, shows how those currencies line up against each other, and confirms it against sentiment and institutional positioning. No predictions. No promises of certainty. Just the context that's usually buried across a dozen tabs.
Who's behind BearPaws
BearPaws is an independent research desk — not a broker, not a signal seller, and not affiliated with anyone who profits when you trade. It's built and maintained by traders and data engineers who read the same scores you see on the site, every day.
Data-driven analysis — market recaps, currency outlooks, positioning reads — is published under the BearPaws Research Team byline. Opinion and interpretation pieces carry an individual author. If a score looks wrong or a number needs a correction, get in touch — a real person reads every message.
Our method
Every score on BearPaws is derived from primary data and computed the same way every time — no discretionary nudging, no black box you have to take on faith. The framework runs in four layers (the full write-up, including limitations, lives in our methodology):
- 1Fundamental valuation. We turn each currency's macro releases — rates, inflation, growth, employment, trade — into one intrinsic-strength score. The model is intrinsic-first: it weighs the pressure a currency is under and anticipates how its central bank is likely to respond, because those second-order policy reactions drive the larger, more durable moves.
- 2Cross-pair alignment. Selecting a pair weights each side's strength by relative market force, so you can see when a pair is in genuine agreement and when it's a coin flip.
- 3Sentiment & bias. We read risk-on versus risk-off from real futures performance, then weight recent and longer-term trends so a one-day spike doesn't swing the read.
- 4Confirmation. We cross-check the fundamental read against where institutional money actually sits in the weekly CFTC positioning data, and against currency-scored breaking news.
Gold (XAU/USD) runs through the same framework as the eight majors — its own strength score, positioning, and risk read — not the chart-only treatment most tools give it.
Where our data comes from
We build on primary, mostly official sources and normalize everything ourselves. No scraped forums, no anonymous “leaks.”
- U.S. Federal Reserve (FRED) — Interest rates, inflation, employment, and other U.S. macro series.
- Eurostat · OECD · national statistics (via DBnomics) — Non-USD macro indicators for the euro, sterling, yen, and the commodity dollars.
- CFTC Commitments of Traders — Weekly institutional (non-commercial) positioning across the majors and gold.
- Real-time market-data feeds — Spot prices, daily candles, and futures performance for the eight majors and XAU.
- ForexFactory economic calendar — Scheduled releases, forecasts, and prior readings.
- Major financial newswires — Reuters, FT, FXStreet, and others — filtered, scored, and tagged per currency.
How we use AI
AI helps us work faster — scoring the impact of breaking news per currency, and drafting recaps from the day's data. It is a tool, not the author. It never invents prices or figures: every number traces back to the sources above, and a person reviews what we publish before it goes live. When a piece is wrong, that's on us, not the model.
What BearPaws is not
Not a signal service. We never tell you to buy or sell. BearPaws shows you the underlying strength and how a pair lines up — you decide the trade.
Not financial advice. Everything here is market context and education. It isn't personalized advice or a recommendation. Trading carries real risk of loss.
Not a timing tool. Our scores describe a weeks-to-months fundamental horizon, not the next candle. Use them as a strategic guide and wait for price to confirm.
Not broker-affiliated. We don't take commissions, kickbacks, or order flow. Nothing we publish is shaped by who profits from your trades.
For the full picture, read our risk disclaimer. Core data is free and stays free — there's no paywall on the pages search brought you to.
What we believe
- Context is more valuable than signals.
- Insight beats prediction.
- Clarity beats complexity.
- A tool should respect that you can make your own decisions.