BearPaws Market Brief – June 25, 2026

Thursday's session opens under a risk-on bias (score 12.13), yet the day's currency moves tell a more nuanced story. Precious metals are under notable pressure while the JPY is firming — a combination worth monitoring alongside geopolitical noise around the Strait of Hormuz and key US data due this afternoon.

Sessions

Both the Asia and London sessions are running at medium volatility, with NZD/CHF the top mover in each at 0.09%. New York opens at the same medium volatility level, but attention shifts to XAU/USD, which leads that session with a 0.22% move. Checking the strength heatmap shows NZD as the weakest major currency today (score -2.91), while JPY stands out as the day's strongest (score +4.95). Silver (XAG) and gold (XAU) are the sharpest movers overall, both deeply in negative territory at -10.00 and -9.03 respectively.

On the calendar

The primary data risk lands at 12:30 UTC with two simultaneous USD releases:

• Core PCE Price Index m/m — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, likely to set the tone for USD direction into the US session close.
• Final GDP q/q — a revision to the prior growth estimate; surprises here can move rates expectations quickly.

Both prints arriving together amplifies the potential for volatility around that window.

In the news

• Iran warns ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz without its approval, calling it