Forex & Metals Weekly Recap – W28 2026

The final week of June and opening days of July delivered a clear risk-on tone across FX markets, with commodity-linked currencies outperforming while the euro and Swiss franc drifted into modest negative territory. Silver stood out as the week's sharpest underperformer, and a late-breaking geopolitical headline added a layer of uncertainty heading into the new week.

Currency strength

The strength heatmap for W28 shows CAD at the top with a score of 2.26, followed closely by AUD at 1.80 and GBP at 1.65 — all three registering bullish readings. The commodity-currency leadership is consistent with the broader risk-on environment: when markets are comfortable taking on risk, higher-yielding and resource-linked currencies tend to attract flows.

On the other side of the ledger, XAG (silver) posted the weakest reading at -3.68, a notably sharp bearish print. EUR (-0.97) and CHF (-0.83) both sit in neutral-to-weak territory, suggesting neither safe-haven demand nor euro-zone growth optimism was particularly compelling this week.

Risk tone

The aggregate risk bias came in at 11.28, firmly in risk-on territory. News sentiment broadly supports this: AUD and CAD carry bullish sentiment scores, and NZD sentiment was the strongest of the week at 0.81. EUR sentiment was the clear outlier at -0.39, the only bearish reading among the majors tracked.

One headline warrants attention regardless of risk appetite: reporting from Australian media described China as preparing to test-fire a nuclear-capable long-range missile with a dummy warhead in the South Pacific within 24 hours. Assets flagged in that headline include XAU, USD, JPY, and CHF — traditional safe-haven instruments. Interestingly, gold news sentiment was itself mildly bullish at 0.23 for the week, suggesting some underlying bid in precious metals even as silver sold off sharply. Markets will be watching whether this headline generates follow-through safe-haven positioning early in W29.

Pairs in focus

XAG/USD was the standout mover, printing a score of -4.62 with high conviction — the most extreme reading among notable pairs this week. The magnitude of silver's underperformance relative to the broader risk-on tone is worth noting; it may reflect position unwinding or commodity-specific supply-demand dynamics rather than a pure macro signal.

EUR/CAD registered -3.55 (bearish, medium conviction), reflecting the divergence between a weak euro and a strong Canadian dollar. Similarly, EUR/AUD at -3.00 bearish captures the same EUR softness playing out against the commodity bloc.

On the bullish side, CAD/CHF at 3.31 and AUD/CHF at 2.77 both show medium-conviction bullish readings — the mirror image of CHF underperformance against risk-on currencies. CAD/JPY at 2.46 rounds out the risk-on picture, with the yen lagging as appetite for carry trades remains intact.

One structural note from COT data: non-commercial positioning in CAD is net short at -146,792 with a further -13,891 shift this week — the most extreme short positioning of any currency tracked. GBP is similarly net short at -105,719 with a sharp -34,134 weekly change. This means the price strength observed in CAD and GBP this week is occurring against a backdrop of still-heavy speculative short positioning, a dynamic that can amplify moves if sentiment continues to shift.

The week ahead

Several high-impact events are scheduled that could materially shift the current picture:

USD ISM Services PMI (Mon, Jul 6, 14:00 UTC) — a key read on the US services sector and an early signal for USD direction heading into the week.
NZD Official Cash Rate & RBNZ Rate Statement (Wed, Jul 8, 02:00 UTC) — the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision will be the focal point for NZD, which carried the strongest news sentiment score this week at 0.81.
RBNZ Press Conference (Wed, Jul 8, 03:00 UTC) — Governor commentary will be closely parsed for forward guidance.
USD FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wed, Jul 8, 18:00 UTC) — the minutes from the most recent Federal Reserve meeting may offer clues on the pace and conditions for future rate adjustments.
CAD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (Fri, Jul 10, 12:30 UTC) — Canadian labour data arrives at an important moment given CAD's outperformance this week and the still-large speculative short position in the currency.

Bottom line

W28 presented a coherent risk-on narrative: commodity and growth-linked currencies led, the euro and franc lagged, and silver faced meaningful selling pressure. The underlying COT data introduces a note of caution — heavy speculative short positioning in CAD and GBP means price strength has not yet been accompanied by a full sentiment realignment among larger players. The China missile headline is a live geopolitical variable that could support safe-haven assets in the near term. Over a weeks-to-months horizon, the interplay between the RBNZ decision, FOMC minutes, and Canadian employment data will be central to whether the current commodity-currency leadership extends or moderates.