Forex & Metals Weekly Recap – W29 2026

The week of July 7–13, 2026 was broadly defined by risk appetite returning to forex markets, with commodity-linked currencies outperforming and precious metals coming under meaningful selling pressure. Geopolitical tension involving Iran and fresh US strikes provided periodic safe-haven demand but was ultimately insufficient to shift the dominant risk-on tone.

Currency strength

The strength heatmap for W29 showed a clear split between commodity currencies and metals. AUD posted the strongest reading of the week at +2.19, firmly in bullish territory, followed by CAD at +1.81, also bullish. GBP registered a modest +1.43, sitting at the neutral boundary. On the weak side, silver (XAG) was the standout underperformer at -9.24, a deeply bearish score, with gold (XAU) also in negative territory at -1.57. NZD rounded out the weak side at -1.11, in neutral-to-bearish territory. The strength distribution suggests that markets were rotating toward growth-sensitive and commodity-linked currencies and away from defensive stores of value during the week.

Risk tone

The aggregate risk bias registered a strongly risk-on reading of +14.97, indicating broad appetite for higher-yielding and growth-correlated assets across the week. News sentiment was mixed at the currency level: EUR sentiment came in bearish at -0.53, while GBP sentiment was modestly bullish at +0.57. XAU sentiment was marginally bullish at +0.10, likely reflecting the geopolitical headline involving Iran's retaliatory strikes following US military action — an event that would typically support safe-haven flows in gold, yen, and franc. That the overall risk bias remained firmly positive despite this headline suggests markets absorbed the geopolitical development without a sustained shift in positioning.

Pairs in focus

XAG/USD was the week's most notable mover, with a bearish score of -10.00 and high conviction — silver's weakness was broad and decisive against the dollar. AUD/NZD printed a bullish +3.17 with medium conviction, consistent with AUD's outperformance and NZD's relative weakness across the board. EUR/AUD fell -2.94 with medium conviction, reflecting EUR's subdued sentiment against a strong Australian dollar. NZD/CAD declined -2.89, though conviction was low, capturing the divergence between a weak NZD and a firm CAD. EUR/CAD similarly moved -2.55 with medium conviction. On the bullish side, AUD/CHF posted a +2.54 gain, though conviction was low — the pairing reflects AUD strength against a safe-haven franc that may have seen some demand from geopolitical risk.

COT data from non-commercial traders adds nuance. JPY net positioning sits at -123,778 but improved by +31,314 over the week, suggesting some short-covering in yen despite the risk-on environment — likely tied to the geopolitical headlines. GBP net positioning at -87,903 also improved by +14,244, consistent with the bullish news sentiment for sterling. On the other hand, CAD net positioning deteriorated by -22,320 to -173,126 — notable given CAD's strong price score, and worth monitoring for divergence. EUR net positioning fell -17,326 to -16,227, reinforcing the bearish sentiment reading. AUD net positioning edged lower by -6,951 to -24,651, a mild drag that sits somewhat in tension with AUD's price-based strength.

The week ahead

The calendar for the coming days is front-loaded with high-impact USD events. US CPI data — both headline and core, month-on-month and year-on-year — is due Tuesday, July 14 at 12:30 UTC, and represents the most significant scheduled release of the week. Fed Chairman Warsh is also scheduled to testify on Tuesday at 14:00 UTC, which could provide forward guidance signals. BOE Governor Bailey is scheduled to speak twice on July 14, at 08:45 UTC and again at 20:00 UTC, making sterling particularly sensitive to any shifts in tone given the current mixed positioning in GBP. US Core PPI m/m follows on Wednesday, July 15 at 12:30 UTC, extending the inflation theme into mid-week. The combination of inflation data and central bank commentary makes the USD and GBP the most event-driven currencies to monitor.

Bottom line

Over a weeks-to-months horizon, the data from W29 paints a picture of a market tilted toward risk and away from traditional safe havens, with AUD and CAD benefiting from the prevailing tone while silver in particular faces notable headwinds. EUR weakness appears consistent across price scores, news sentiment, and COT flows. GBP holds a more constructive profile but remains in net short territory among non-commercials. Upcoming US inflation data and central bank commentary could either reinforce or challenge the current risk-on bias, and any escalation in Middle East tensions would likely re-test the resilience of that risk appetite — particularly for gold, yen, and franc.